Modelling, simulations and observations

TerraFIRMA is using the United Kingdom Earth System Modelling (UKESM) series of numerical models, which are some of the most advanced Earth system models (ESMs) in the world. 

This unique capability includes fully interactive treatment of the physical climate, carbon cycle, dynamic vegetation, atmospheric chemistry and aerosols, ocean biogeochemistry and both Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

The project develops, evaluates and exploits the next generation of UKESM, UKESM2, which will be based on a new physical model core HadGEM3-GC5 and include closed, complete cycles, of both carbon and methane, interactive ice sheets, wildfires and permafrost, nitrate aerosol and improved representation of human land use and. These improvements will provide better process realism, which will be carefully evaluated. The planned developments will increase the ability of the model to investigate a range of climate mitigation options and study the risk of rapid, potentially irreversible Earth system change.

TerraFIRMA uses existing data from UKESM1 and CMIP6 and our improved models to address a range of project science goals. We are running simulations including:

• Overshoot projections where global mean surface air temperature exceeds a target level (e.g. 2°C above pre-industrial), rising to a warmer value (e.g. 3°C), before stabilizing and then cooling back to the target level at a later date.
• Stabilization runs, where net GHG emissions are set to zero at a given level of global warming (e.g. 2°C).
• Higher resolution (~25km), global atmosphere-land time slice experiments and dynamically downscaled runs to assess the impact of precipitation changes on water availability and interactions between climate change and air quality.